5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Jun 2003

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 28/08/2003

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About this Release

JUNE KEY FIGURES


		Jun Qtr 03	Mar Qtr 03 to	Jun Qtr 02 to
			Jun Qtr 03	Jun Qtr 03

		$m	% change	% change

Trend estimates (a)
	Total new capital expenditure	13,415	1.6	14.7
	Buildings & structures	3,189	-0.1	16.1
	Equipment, plant & machinery	10,217	2.0	14.2

Seasonally adjusted (a)
	Total new capital expenditure	13,382	1.6	14.6
	Buildings & structures	3,186	0.8	19.9
	Equipment, plant & machinery	10,196	1.8	13.0

(a) In volume terms.

Graph: New Capital Expenditure, in volume terms

KEY POINTS

ACTUAL EXPENDITURE

The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure (in volume terms) increased by 1.6% in the June quarter 2003, continuing the increases of the previous seven quarters.

The trend estimate for expenditure on buildings and structures remained relatively unchanged following five quarters of growth.

The trend estimate for expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery increased by 2.0%, which was the eighth consecutive quarter of growth, although the rate of increase has slowed over the past three quarters.

The trend estimates of expenditure by Mining and Manufacturing have increased over the past several quarters, while Other selected industries remained unchanged.

In seasonally adjusted terms there was an increase of 1.6% in total new capital expenditure in the June quarter 2003, following a 5.4% decrease in the previous quarter.

EXPECTED EXPENDITURE

This issue includes the seventh estimate for 2002-03 and the third estimate for 2003-04.

Estimate 7 for 2002-03 is $51,098m, which is 15.1% higher than the corresponding estimate for 2001-02 and 1.3% lower than Estimate 6.

Estimate 3 for 2003-04 is $49,527m. This estimate is 5.0% higher than the comparable estimate for 2002-03 and 8.0% higher than Estimate 2.

See pages 4 and 5 for further commentary on expectations data.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

A new base year, 2001-02, has been introduced into the chain volume estimates which has resulted in revisions to growth rates in subsequent periods. Also, the chain volume estimates have been re-referenced to 2001-02, thereby preserving additivity in the quarters after the reference year. Re-referencing affects the levels of, but not the movements in, chain volume estimates.

ABBREVIATIONS

ABS	Australian Bureau of Statistics
ANZSIC	Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification

FURTHER INFORMATION

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Didier Rivet on Sydney 02 9268 4357.

ACTUAL NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE TREND

QUARTERLY TREND ESTIMATES OF CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES

BY ASSET

The trend estimate for buildings and structures remained relatively unchanged in the June quarter 2003, with a marginal decrease of 0.1%, after five quarters of growth. The trend estimate for Manufacturing (+0.2%) and Mining (+2.4%) both increased slightly in the June quarter, but the rate of growth has declined considerably over the past four quarters. Other selected industries has remained relatively unchanged.

The trend estimate for expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery has increased for the past eight quarters with each major industry group contributing to this increase.

graph: QUARTERLY TREND ESTIMATES OF CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES, BY ASSET

BY INDUSTRY

Trend estimates for expenditure by Mining rose for the twelfth consecutive quarter. In trend terms expenditure on both buildings and structures (+2.4%) and equipment, plant and machinery (+3.9%) continued to increase.

The trend estimate for expenditure by Manufacturing increased by 3.6%, the eighth continuous quarter of steady growth. Building and structures growth slowed to 0.2% in the June quarter 2003, while equipment rose by 3.9%.

The trend estimate for expenditure by Other selected industries was unchanged in the June quarter 2003. Expenditure on buildings and structures fell by 1.7%, while equipment, plant and machinery increased by 0.5%.

Graph: QUARTERLY TREND ESTIMATES OF CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES, BY INDUSTRY

ACTUAL AND EXPECTED NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

FINANCIAL YEARS AT CURRENT PRICES

The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year. The estimates appearing below relate to data contained in tables 5 and 6.

Advice about the application of realisation ratios to these estimates is in Paragraphs 26 to 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

The timing and construction of these estimates are as follows:

		COMPOSITION OF ESTIMATE
Estimate	Based on data reported at:	Data on long-term excpected expenditure	Data on short-term expected expenditure	Data on actual expenditure

1	Jan-Feb, 5-6 months before period begins	12 months	Nil	Nil
2	Apr-May, 2-3 months before period begins	12 months	Nil	Nil
3	Jul-Aug, at beginning of period	6 months	6 months	Nil
4	Oct-Nov, 3-4 months into period	6 months	3 months	3 months
5	Jan-Feb, 6-7 months into period	Nil	6 months	6 months
6	Apr-May, 9-10 months into period	Nil	3 months	9 months
7	Jul-Aug, at end of period	Nil	Nil	12 months

TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Estimate 7 for 2002-03 is 15.1% ($6,718m) higher than the comparable estimate for 2001-02 and is 1.3% lower than estimate 6. The increase from 2001-02 was predominately contributed to by Transport and storage ($2,316m), Manufacturing ($2,132m) and Mining ($1,740m).

Estimate 3 for 2003-04 is $49,527. This is 5.0% higher than the corresponding estimate for 2002-03 and 8.0% higher than estimate 2. The increase from estimate 2 is similar to the corresponding increases over past financial years and is spread across a range of industries, although Retail (-4.1%) and Transport and storage (-2.8%) had slight falls.

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

Estimate 7 for 2002-03 is 23% higher than estimate 7 from 2001-02 and 6.2% lower than the estimate recorded last quarter. The strong increase from last year was mainly contributed to by Manufacturing (+112%), Transport and storage (+37%) and Mining (+36%). Construction fell significantly, by 54%.

The third estimate for 2003-04 is 30% higher than for 2002-03 and is 12.2% higher than estimate 2. Mining (+15.3%) and Other selected industries (+12.4%) both contributed significantly to the overall increase, while Manufacturing had a small increase of 3.1%.

Graph: CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

Estimate 7 for 2002-03 is 12.6% higher than the comparable estimate from 2001-02 and 0.5% higher than estimate 6 recorded last quarter. The increase from the previous year is dominated by Transport and storage (+51%), with only Other Services recording a fall (-9.7%). Compared to estimate 6, Mining had the most significant fall (-5.7%), while Other services (-3.2%), Finance and insurance (-2.6%) and Manufacturing (-1.5%) had small falls. Construction (+9.5%), Wholesale (+7.2%) and Retail (+6.4%) all increased.

The third estimate for 2003-04 is 4.4% lower than for 2002-03 but 6.0% higher than the second estimate recorded last quarter. Expectations for all industries except Transport and storage and Other services increased on estimate 2.

Graph; CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY